Experts are predicting that the Canada-US border can re-open late summer or early fall, however not without working out some complications.
The border has been closed to non-essential travel since March 2020. The border closure agreement between Ottawa and Washington is expected to be renewed on May 21st.
“My gut tells me it’s going to be closed at least well into the fall of 2021, because things are literally ten times worse now than they were this time last year with infection rates, with ICU admissions.” said policy expert and associate professor Aaron Ettinger.
The relationship between Canada and the US is already politically complicated, and is further complicated by Canada’s dependence on the US, along with other countries, for vaccine supply. Canada can’t make its own vaccine as of now, therefore the dependence is a necessity for Canada, giving the US a heavier hand in negotiations.
Another consideration is quarantine rules, and experts can’t pinpoint exactly what it will look like yet. PM Trudeau hinted at a possible vaccine passport system last week but there have been no logistical advancements.
The US has vaccinated its population much faster than Canada, and protecting this effort and US citizens would also be a consideration for President Biden.
“Though [PM Justin Trudeau] didn’t commit to anything, it’s a signal that he sees a coordinated system in the not-so-distant future. The U.S. and Canada could develop a North American vaccine passport to replace and simplify the ramshackle quarantine rules currently in place.” said Ettinger.
Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said last month that it’s simply too soon to talk about border reopening because the pandemic’s path is very uncertain, and there isn’t room for mistakes.