Researchers at Simon Fraser University say that with the current vaccine plan, it is very unlikely that BC will be back to pre pandemic by fall.
According to the research, there won’t be enough BC residents vaccinated by September to allow for things to reopen, especially considering the trajectory at which cases are increasing.
The biggest factor that contributed to the conclusion, is that children being vaccinated is not part of the plan. There are no COVID-19 vaccines that are approved for children.
Modelling suggests that BC’s current plan will only protect 51% of the population, given all adults getting their second doses by fall. This is alarming because the requirement for effective herd immunity is between 60-70%.
This is assuming that 80% of BC’s adults get vaccinated, the vaccine remains effective against variants, and that immunity doesn’t decrease over time. These factors make predictions tentative due to a lot of uncertainty. The recent confusion about vaccine effectiveness and efficacy has drastically increased vaccine hesitancy among the general population leading to more people opting out of vaccination.
The report suggests that vaccinating children would push us over the 60% mark, however it is extremely unlikely that children will be vaccinated by September. Moderna, AstraZeneca and Pfizer are being used in Canada, with the first two approved for adults (18+) and Pfizer approved for 16+ years of age. Pfizer has applied for approval to be used in children as young as 12 years old.
The report states, “The difficulty is that children, adults who decline the vaccine, and adults for whom the vaccine did not prevent infection are numerous enough that the pandemic will unfold among them once restrictions are lifted.”
Things all over the world remain uncertain and unpredictable. It is difficult to say when we’ll see COVID-19 in the rear view mirror.